To go back to the video store, I can see that industry declining heavily in the future but not really dying. What will happen is it will be dominated by a few huge players like Blockbuster. The “mom and pop” video stores will be all but closed unless they branch into another business model.

(Aside: a video store crossed with coffee shop might be cool. Watch a free movie while you drink. Then you can take it or another home…)

I think the best ideas are formed from an actually need of the founder. del.icio.us was founded because the founder needed to manage his bookmark collection, everyone knows how Google was founded. Like the saying in the Open Source community, “scratch your own itch”.

@James – I like your idea! The other thing is that lots of video tapes can’t be replaced by new technology such as family videos, bootlegs, and other things like that.

What’s old is new again. “Can’t get VCR anymore? Don’t scrap that machine – come see us for our collection of retro VCR tapes!” or something like that.

I need wine.

(guess I’m feeling feisty – bring it on)

It was a letdown to see it not work out, but now that I think about it, I’m kind of glad it turned out that way. It’s hard to make that type of business lucrative. Even Apple has admitted they don’t make much profit from iTunes. It’s just a platform to support iPod sales.

Besides that, I love making web sites and can’t imagine doing anything else. My husband feels the same way about doing illustration. I’d rather find a way to be successful doing what I love than start a business just to sell it later or watch it get obsolete.

I’m currently in the middle of an internal debate on whether an idea of mine would be worthy for implementation or not (I’m starting to believe it is) – that’s where I got the idea for post which Shane linked to as inspiration for this post.

This morning I had already packed up my computer for work and was taking a shower when I realized that what makes a big difference in deciding whether you should start a specific type of a business or not is how you see the state of the market. I had to come back, start the computer and comment.

You say it doesn’t make sense to start a video rental store anymore. But still, people start them all the time. Why?

I don’t think the person who starts a video store thinks that he will fail in five years or less. He plans to succeed, just as everyone. But the mistake (?) he makes is that he misintreprets the state the business is in, thinking that it is in a steady phase that can go on for decades instead of the fading away phase.

It’s easy to see that someone thinking this way about a video store might be mistaken. But what about a web based startup that wants to start a new social networking site? There are already tons of these, so would you say it’s too late to enter the market, or are we in a state where a new site can still kick the current competition out?

Google did it when it entered the search engine market. But most will probably fail trying to beat Facebook.

The lines between the different stages described in Shane’s post are blurry. That’s what makes the start interesting. (And that’s just the beginning…

I think your point is a very romantic point. The world is a better place for ingenuity.

I also think that while business can be romantic, it often works best given a proven formula.

I think the best business to start is one where you have a path to follow but the path doesn’t lead to a cliff.

A video store has a path to follow. But I don’t have faith that it as a business, will grow. I think it will diminish – i.e. the cliff.

If you knew the titanic was going to sink, would you get on it just because you know it would be an adventure? Because it was different?

Shane and I have this debate a lot. Should we work with innovative new bleeding edge alpha technologies (we think they’re fun), or should we work more with standard websites, blogs etc. Generally, we always find repetitive things are profitable, while new engagements are risky and often lead to loss.

We still play with bleeding edge tech because we’re romantic, but not so much because we’re being rational.

I’ll say one thing: I am in no way encouraging people to start a business with the idea that it will fail and you will learn from the experience. Not at all.

I believe you must go into any business with the attitude that you will achieve success and will do what it takes to make that success happen – but that you should be prepared to make changes, adapt and possibly fail. Anyone who walks into business thinking it will be a 100% success is chasing fool’s gold.

Plan to win, yes. Be conscious that you may not win. This is not expecting failure – this is knowing the risks and doing what you can to prevent them.

Yes, I think choosing a thriving industry to tap into is a good choice. I think that choosing a business with long-term potential is wise. I do not agree that a person should choose a business outside his or her personal interests based on the potential of success. There is money in accounting – damned if I’ll do the math.

People expect success without failure – they expect all the advantages, benefits and dreams to occur. When something does fail, be it a marriage, a house mortgage or a business, they don’t analyze how they could prevent that same situation the next time around, or they don’t work on finding solutions. They crap out. I don’t blame them, either – any failure is tough to go through.

It may be wise to invest in a slowing market if you know that you can do something different to turn the market around. Everyone sells hot dogs, but fast food is on its way out. So restaurants are turning the market around by offering something different – fast, healthy food. They are using a slowing market and investing in change and adaptation.

Had McDonalds gone with your line of thinking – that growth in a slowing industry is impossible – the Golden Arches would’ve crumbled. And yet, up here, people are now buying salads and wraps. The chain survives.

Pick a trend, sure – but to me, this is more risky. Fads come and go. Trends boom, then crash. Who can guess what the next hot market will be? It’s impossible. Picking a trend to invest in and grabbing onto coattails might leave you holding an empty jacket.

My industry… *sigh* Ah, you would ask questions.

Trends are changing, yes. Snappy, fast, Web 2.0 writing is in. Lots of personality and a young, dynamic tone. Corporate-speak is out. Bland and informative is dying. People want entertainment and to stand out.

Different opportunities? Yes, absolutely. Adaptation required? Definitely. Will many writers die off? Of course – plenty of people cannot change and adapt quickly enough or effectively enough. Do we need to invest in our own adaptation? Yes, of course – we need to learn and change, stand out as Web 2.0 writers and cutting-edge scribes. (There’s an anachronism for you!) We’ve done it, we’re onto it, and we’re adapting.

But we can do this because we invested in a business that we loved, first. Not because it was a fad or trend or had opportunity for growth and success. We write because we love to. (Much in line with what Stephanie just wrote.)

That passion, first and foremost, seals our success.

There are so many start-ups that really – to me – don’t make sense. You can tell they are just wanting a piece of the pie.

Starting a business with hope of having it bought out, in a sense, is a get rich quick idea. Which of course is nice, but in my opinion, isn’t a Alexander Graham Bell or Thomas Edison idea. They were inventors. Not copiers.

What I see lacking is uniqueness. What makes you stand out from the rest? What is missing in the world?

A great question that I’ve been pondering lately is:

“How does what I want serve me and how does it serve everybody I come in contact with?”

Having the ability to adapt to a changing market is vital, I couldn’t agree more. No doubt on that. But this isn’t principle. People mortgage their houses, test their marriages and go to extreme personal risk to start a company. Wouldn’t you want all the advantages you can have? I can promise you that loosing a company is no picnic.

I am down with learning and have lost two business myself. You can learn and fail on something that has better odds and at least have an increased chance of success. To go into business expecting it to be a learning experience and a failure sounds unwise. Don’t go into business unless you plan to win.

I am not sure I would ever think it wise to invest into a slowing market. If you are looking to own your own job and there is enough work to cover yourself, that may be enough, but if you plan to grow a company that supports many, I still think it is wise to pick a trend and grab on its coat tails.

How does this apply to your industry? Does it? Writing is one of those areas that has been around for centuries. What are the trends in writing right now? Do they garner different opportunities and different incomes? Is there a type of writing business you would consider unwise to launch?